Will Kenya surely arrest President Al Bashir if he steps foot on its soil?

Neither Kenya nor Islamic republic of Sudan  is a land lock country to go easy on executing its legal obligations and duties in the international arena. The golden answer to this simple question is that the two countries would first weigh their mutual benefits especially  with the Sudan no longer a direct neighbor to any of the East African countries. With South Sudan yet a member in the east Africa Community, Sudan  is just lying to itself in threatening Kenya to reverse the verdict reached by the Kenya’s High Court to arrest president Al Bashir if he again sets foot on the soil of Kenya this time. President Al Bashir unexpected visit to Kenya in August this year during the promulgation of the Kenya new Constitution was just due to constitutional limbo Kenya underwent. There was no functioning laws in Kenya by the time he went due to constitutional vacuum.   Kenya was passing on from old colonial document to a new law, hence at that particular hours, he had to stay and leave quickly. President Al Bashir was a guest cautioned on when to leave because had he to delayed, he would have been arrested. Surely the answer is just even not such a golden in nature due to the fact that, it is never a costly answer.  The government of Kenya will be obliged to arrest president Al Bashir by all means.  The reasons that will warrant his immediate arrest if he again goes there are; the Kenyan citizens are well informed, unlike the Sudanese masses who are susceptible to shallow political expressions by executives. The current public opinion in Kenya is that , the government has no a single excuse not to arrest Bashir. Second to that no single politician in Kenya would defy that popular will of its population because general elections in Kenya are just next door and Kenyan politicians would always behave in a way that garner them vote to parliament.  The two existing political houses of Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) of Prime Minister Raila Amollo Odinga and the Party of National Union (PNU) of President Mwai Kibaki are crisscrossing the country soliciting for votes with high wave of alliances. So in this fragile environment of politicking, the two bodies would ensure that nobody is held accountable in extending the records of impunity into general elections.The new constitution of which President Al Bashir attended its promulgation was meant to put to an end the culture of impunity given that thousand Kenyans had lost their lives in the 2007-2008 Post Elections Violent (PEV), a record which had managed to tarnish the image of a country that had been in the forefront in  democracy , good governance and human rights credentials in the region.  Kenya was almost brought down to its knees had it  not interventions from international bodies led by the former United Nations (UN) Secretary General Koffi Annan with  African elders who labored hard had to see Kenya back to its leading role. Therefore the birth of that Constitution is literally viewed by the general public in Kenya as an end to era of impunity and a new beginning to modern era of accountable government.  This is justified by the stance taken by the Kenya Chief Justice Dr. Willy Mutunga  who stood alongside Judge Omjia who made the ruling. Dr. Mutunga cautioned senior government officials to refrain from negative disparages seen to infringe independence of judiciary and he went as far saying that unless Kenyans  want to return to chaos, let them continue saying what they say in relation to court ruling.  In this regard, no single Kenya would wish to experience chaos in any way. Another alarming reason that is there for Al Bashir to be arrested in Kenya is the International pressure. Kenya would never allowed its straight international records to be bent in support of a dying rogue state of the like of Sudan which is at the brink of disintegration.  Sudan is faced by all peripheral wars due to lack of clear national agenda of its citizens. Although Sudan is trying to shake  diplomatic muscles of Kenya by sanctioning it in using its airspace, it will never go far in executing such because that would add salt onto already septic wound. It would be against the international Civil Aviation. So this is a wishful thinking that will never see light. Third reason of Kenya going to arrest Al Bashir is that Sudan doesn’t  give spoon to Kenya instead Sudan would be more interested in using Port Mombasa to monitor South Sudan. This was reflected in the recent application Sudan lodged  seeking membership of East Africa Community. This was not on economical aspect but a typical  political move especially to monitor South Sudan military development.  Sudan’s  application was rejected on several accounts including  lack of direct international borders with any of the already East African Community member states.  If Sudan was keen enough, it would have pushed for the membership of South Sudan to pave way for it. Sudan is fishing in turbulent waters Sudan can be seen powerful over Kenya in this aspect because of  the nature of Kenya foreign policies.  Kenya has a record of none alignment in its  foreign policies though the recent move to attack Somali terrorist group called Al Shabab on the Somali territories shows that Kenya is shedding off some of its old policies to survive and remain master of the India Ocean coastal hemisphere. If the relationship between the two states indeed severed, South Sudan is the immediate beneficiary in the sense that it will do all kinds of oceanic transactions without fear of interception by its arrogant northern neighbor Sudan.  Besides that it will de-link Sudan from supporting its twins like Islamist organization Al Shabab given that Ethiopia is exerting international pressures on Eritrea. The move would also anger Uganda if Kenya fails to arrest President Al Bashir this time round.  Both Kenya and Uganda are active members of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), a body which mothered Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) to end war between the North and South Sudan.  Kenya will arrest President Al Bashir in order to have Western tokens. Economic implications Kenya might experienceSudan as an African gateway to Arab world can exert economic sanctions on Kenya through third party that to say by influencing the gulf states not to engage in trade with Kenya but here Sudan will have to offer them options also. It is the gulf countries which buy Kenya highland tea. Besides that Sudan is likely to terminate all the economic assistances that are channeled to Kenya through Islamic Reliefs and donation to Al Jamaa Mosques in coastal province of Kenya. Libya through its former leader Muammar Gaddafi used to fund Islamic activities and even political campaigns in Kenya. The position of African Union (AU) urging all member states not to cooperate with court in arrest Sudanese president is another tactical isolation Africa is driving at unknowingly.  Of course Kenya share the same burden with Sudan especially on the issue of The Ocampo six which Kenya voluntarily surrendered to The Hague Court after it failed to establish a tribunal to handle cases at home.  AU member states will not hold on to such position too long after all the new ICC Chief Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda came through the support of most African States. Atok D Baguot is residing in Juba, and is reached at atokbaguot@gmail.com